The important development that’s expected to occur in mid-September is of course Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake also known as the merge.
In case you missed the memo Ethereum’s final merge test net took place last week and it was a massive success so much so that Ethereum developers have bumped up the date for the main net merge.
The Ethereum merge is now expected to occur on the 15th of September and I should note that this is a soft date meaning the merge could occur the day before or the day after.
When you combine this bullish news with what will hopefully be another lower CPI print on the 13th of September you have a recipe for rocket fuel which will take ETH and most other altcoins to the moon. Even though ETH is still more than 50 down from its all-time high in dollar terms it has been gaining against BTC for almost two years and appears to have officially broken out on the weekly chart.
If my measurements are correct ETH could hit 0,1 BTC or more in the coming weeks.
Logically this means that ETH’s price in fiat terms will depend on BTC’s price in fiat terms at that time. Now this is anyone’s guess but previous crypto market cycles suggest we could rally back up to the next zone of price resistance which is anywhere between 30 and 36 k and possibly as high as 38k.
With each ether being worth around 0,1 BTC at that time this translates to an ETH price of 3 to 3,8 k and I reckon additional speculation and hype could possibly push its price into the 4k range which would give ETH a double top for this crypto market cycle just like BTC. Now there are a few things to remember however.
First and foremost this all assumes that the two important inflation prints that occur between now and then come in lower than previous prints which is by no means guaranteed.
Never mind all the other black swans that seem to be swimming around the markets lately. Secondly it sounds like Ethereum’s final hard fork prior to the merge will take place on the 6th of September.
It’s possible that Ethereum developers could discover a bug at this stage which would cause the merge to be delayed. Now this is unlikely but again a possibility and must therefore be accounted for.
Finally the merge is arguably one of the most important events in cryptocurrency.
Expectations are thus extremely high and if these expectations are not met for whatever reason ETH could crash very quickly. There’s also the non-zero possibility of a serious problem showing up during the merge so take nothing for granted.