Skip to content

AES4

Horst Görtz Institut für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik

  • PRIVACY POLICY
  • TERMS AND CONDITIONS

Month: September 2022

Last Week’s Crypto Market

Posted on September 28, 2022 by Jorg van Mullen
Last Week’s Crypto Market

Last week the crypto Market continued its long-term downtrend with BTC falling to 18K and ETH Flash crashing down to 1.

2 K despite Ethereum’s transition to proof of stake.

I say despite because it was believed that the merge would bring large institutional inflows but so far not much.

This downturn in crypto prices was made worse by the more than 400 million dollars in liquidations of leveraged Traders as always the Silver Lining is that this should make prices a little less volatile in the short term but it looks like ETH could still be in a bit of trouble.

That’s because Ethereum miners who were put out of business by the merge are still holding more than 300 million dollars worth of ETH which they will presumably sell at some point.

Note that Ethereum miners only sold around 20 million dollars of ETH leading up to the merge.

There are likely many Ethereum validators who are looking to sell some of their steak teeth luckily it’s going to be at least another 6 to 12 months before unstaking is possible and we may not see much selling on that front.

In the meantime there will be no shortage of macro factors that could take the crypto markets lower.

The elephant in the room is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and many of you will know that the FED raise interest rates by another 75 basis points last week.

What many of you may not know however is that lots of other central banks raised interest rates last week too including the bank of England.

The resulting tightening of financial conditions around the world is now leading to fears of a global recession and this really seems to be the top of the iceberg.

There is one macro factor and one crypto specific factor that could do serious damage to the crypto Market as soon as this week.

These are Russia’s escalation of the Ukraine conflict and a potential Crackdown on crypto projects by the SEC.

Posted in Crypto Market

Telegram bots as crypto tools

Posted on September 25, 2022September 20, 2022 by Jorg van Mullen
Telegram bots as crypto tools

The cryptocurrency market is always changing.

It’s a struggle to keep up with the trends when every week or day brings new information and fresh analysis.

In actuality, achieving it right the first time is nearly impossible, but you may boost your chances of success by using the suitable crypto tools.

That’s why, today, I’m going to discuss some of the greatest crypto tools I’ve encountered and how to employ them to their full potential.

The great crypto tool to add to your belt is a couple of Telegram bots specifically the Ether Drops bot and the Token Unlocks bot the Ether Drops bot makes it possible to receive a Telegram message about changes to specific crypto prices when a specific coin token or NFT is sent, when there’s a change in a coin or token’s liquidity whenever a coin or token is being swapped on a Dex and even lets you track specific wallets.

The Ether Drops bot has been around since 2018 and it supports popular EVM chains such as Ethereum, Polygon, Phantom, Arbitram, Avalanche and BSC.

I suspect that the Ether Drops bot will add additional EVM chains as time goes on.

What’s amazing is that the Ether Drops bot has a free version and though there’s a limit to how many items you can track and how many messages you can receive.

For most of you the free version should be more than enough and if it’s not then the annual subscription options are very affordable.

The only downside to Ether Drops Bot is that it can take some time to set up due to all the options it offers.

Luckily Ether Drops published a detailed tutorial on Medium.

It should go without saying that having the ability to closely track whatever coin token wallet or trade you want is very valuable and there’s no limit to what you could do with Ether Drops bot.

I personally use it to keep track of the largest holders of my favorite coins and tokens the whales, if you will this relates to the token unlock spot which lets you see when coins and tokens allocated to investors like early investors and the team are about to vest aka unlock.

This is important because a large unlock almost always results in a lot of cell pressure for that coin or token as insiders sell at a huge profit.

Whereas the Ether Drop bot can take some time to set up, the token unlock spot shouldn’t take more than two seconds to get, sorted that’s because there’s only two options: “unlock info” which lets you see all the coins and tokens the bot supports and “alert” which lets you set alerts for said coins and tokens.

If you’re not a fan of Telegram you can stick to using the Token Unlocks website which also gives more information about tokenomics including the total supply, the circulating supply, what percentage of the total supply is still waiting to be unlocked and when clicking on a coin or token provides even more detailed information about tokenomics, including the initial distribution of the coin or token, the vesting schedule and how much cell pressure the next unlock is going to create for the coin or token based on its current value.

If you scroll down you can even see how much of that coin or token is waiting to vest to specific entities be it early investors the team or the foundation that legally owns the project.

This can help you get a better sense of how much cell pressure could occur when the next unlock comes around.

If you are a fan of Telegram, I strongly suggest using the bots to set alerts for these unlocks.

Posted in Crypto Articles

Weekly overview of the markets from AES4

Posted on September 15, 2022September 13, 2022 by Jorg van Mullen
Weekly overview of the markets from AES4

For those who don’t know most stable coins are backed by US government debt and this means they’re the perfect way for the US government to subsidize its spending some would say it’s the only way given that historical bulk buyers of US treasuries like China aren’t too keen on buying these days.

The European Central Bank or ECB is acutely aware of the threat that the adoption of US dollar stable coins poses to the euro especially as the Euro continues to collapse in value against the dollar.

Besides the economic issues that the Eurozone is facing as a result of sky-high energy costs another driver of the Euro’s depreciation has been The ECB’s Lax monetary policy which saw interest rates drop to zero and then go negative during the European debt crisis in the early 2010s.

Not surprisingly dropping interest rates to zero caused the cost of housing in Europe to go off the charts as informed investors took on massive amounts of debt to invest in real estate.

Institutions also took on record levels of Leverage to grow and speculate including many European Banks.

The ECB’s recent decision to raise interest rates by a whopping 75 basis points could therefore spell Doom for all the over-leveraged entities in Europe.

The same way the FED’s massive rate hikes will spell Doom for over leveraged entities in the United States except worse.

The catch is that it takes time for the monetary policy of central banks to be felt in the real economy, the rule of thumb is that it takes about a year for interest rates to squeeze individuals and institutions and the only reason the markets crash right away is because investors are pricing the future.

The thing is that Europe the United States and most of the rest of the world are already on the brink of a recession if not in one already.

Raising interest rates into a recession is basically guaranteed to do even more economic damage the full effects of which will not be felt until later next year at the earliest.

What this means is that we’re likely to see something much more serious than another Garden variety recession and some economists believe it could be just as bad if not worse than the Great Depression that happened over 100 years ago.

The Silver Lining is that this period of economic pain should only affect the stock market and crypto market for the next two years or so which is coincidentally consistent with the length of previous crypto bear markets interesting given that crypto has become heavily correlated with stocks.

If you’re wondering why central banks are raising interest rates so aggressively the answer is of course inflation caused by Rising energy costs around the world especially in Europe where Russia just confirmed that it will be keeping the Nordstream pipeline shut until sanctions are lifted.

To clarify there is still some gas making its way into Europe from Russia through other pipelines and it appears that Europe continues to purchase Russian oil and was purchasing Russian coal until just a couple of weeks ago.

What this means is that Putin could still bring more pain to Europe as winter approaches and the recently passed proposal by G7 countries to put a cap on Russian oil come December seems to have guaranteed that Russia will pull the plug on other resources Europe requires for energy.

What’s especially concerning is that the US treasury Department warned that the United States will sanction any individual institution or nation-state that makes quote significant purchases of oil above the price cap imposed on Russian oil.

These activities are only increasing the likelihood that countries will opt to break away from the Western World Order and Ally themselves with Russia, China, India and others in the east.

This will further complicate Supply chains creating a level of inflation.

That’s likely to persist even after the energy crisis has ceased and at this rate.

It looks like the energy crisis is going to get much much worse before it gets better.

The effects this will have on crypto are straightforward.

It’s going to be really really bad because central banks will continue to raise interest rates to crush demand to the point that it comes in line with the limited supply of energy to paraphrase FED chairman Jerome Powell.

The wild card in this equation is that sanctioned countries could start adopting cryptocurrency to continue their International operations – something that the Iranian government had earlier announced.

It would start doing this month although this means that crypto is likely to come under even more scrutiny.

It will simultaneously prove that crypto can be used on an international scale.

This could set the stage for adoption by other countries facing similar economic pressures.

Posted in Crypto Articles

A Crypto Primer: Currencies, Commodities, and Tokens

Posted on September 11, 2022September 6, 2022 by Jorg van Mullen
A Crypto Primer: Currencies, Commodities, and Tokens

Cryptocurrency lingo is full of technical jargon. As a result, many terms are frequently confused with one another without much consideration as to their significance. This might be time-consuming for investors looking to grasp and enter the crypto market.

The three words: cryptocurrencies, crypto tokens, and crypto commodities are often confused for one another in interviews and other discussions. However, they all hold unique meanings that become important to understand when determining a valuation framework for investment opportunities. For example, the value of a cryptocurrency is derived from how well the coin adheres to characteristics of money. In contrast, the value of a crypto token largely depends on factors such as protocol adoption or robustness.

A brief overview of the differences between cryptocurrencies, crypto tokens, and crypto commodities is provided below.

Cryptocurrencies are one of the most fascinating investment possibilities on the market today. Cryptocurrencies, often referred to as digital money, are a subset of electronic coins that meet the standards set out by traditional paper money. The following are some of its features: a store of value, unit of account, and fungibility (or the ability to be utilized regardless of its history of transactions).

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin are some examples of cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency valuing frameworks tend to consider things like traction for the said currency as well as its supply schedules. The terms “altcoin” and “coin” are synonymous with regard to cryptocurrency.

In broad terms, a crypto commodity is an tradable or fungible asset that may be used to represent a commodity, utility, or contract in the real or virtual world through unique tokens on a blockchain network. Some people consider blockchains creating tokens as crypto commodities. CPU power and other computer system features are said to define crypto commodities in one case, while in the other case they are defined as components of cryptocurrencies.

With the help of an illustration, it may be easier to see how tangible coins are linked to their virtual counterparts.

In the physical world, oil is a commodity. It has an associated cost in extracting it from the ground and is used to power global commerce. In crypto commodities, things work similarly. There’s a price tag on their creation and they’re utilized to run the cryptocurrency economy.

Cryptocurrency has no inherent value. It is a market-based commodity that depends on the quantity and speed of processing power, as well as storage capacity, available to the system. Because it’s used as a foundation block to create smart contract tokens, Ethereum’s blockchain is another example. The Ethereum Enterprise Alliance (EEA), made up of several large organizations, has come together to establish a framework and common technology for creating apps on its blockchain.

Cryptocurrencies, like crypto tokens, are built on blockchains. The most prevalent sort of tokens is cryptocurrencies. However, crypto tokens are more comprehensive representations of blockchain value. Value is represented in a variety of ways, including as cryptocurrencies and loyalty points and assets developed on the blockchain.

Ethereum provides the blockchain platform for tokens that are used to develop services and products. For example, Tronix (TRX) is a token for the entertainment industry while EOS is a infrastructure token powering decentralized applications. You can find a full list of Ethereum tokens here.

Even though they are often used synonymously in media, cryptocurrencies, crypto commodities, and crypto tokens are three distinct entities. These differences become especially important when talking about possible regulation and valuation changes down the line.

Posted in Crypto ArticlesTagged Commodities, Currencies, Tokens

Will Cardano’s hark fork called Vassal take a place in the same with Ethereum’s one?

Posted on September 2, 2022August 31, 2022 by Jorg van Mullen
Will Cardano’s hark fork called Vassal take a place in the same with Ethereum’s one?

Now another thing that has crypto holders concerned is the risk of on-chain censorship after Ethereum transitions from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

This is because Ethereum’s largest validators are regulated entities which could potentially be coerced by regulators to enforce rules at the protocol level. While this risk appears to be extremely low it’s large enough that large crypto mining company ant pool recently announced it will be pulling its clients funds from Ethereum post merch citing on chain censorship fears. Note that this could have something to do with antpool being a Chinese company.

Now as some of you will know one of the ways I’ve personally been hedging myself against something going wrong with Ethereum’s merge is to hold competing smart contract cryptocurrencies as part of my portfolio and this includes Cardano’s ADA.

As many of you will also know Cardano is overdue for a hard fork called Vasil which was initially supposed to happen in June but was delayed by a month after minor bugs were discovered and then indefinitely delayed again in July to ensure quote a smooth process.

More recently a Cardano developer claimed in a Twitter thread that Cardano’s Vassal testnet was quote “catastrophically broken due to a series of bugs” and cautioned that the Vassal hard fork should not be rushed. In an AMA shortly afterwards Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson came out to call the quote unfair narrative about Cardano’s test net quote incredibly corrosive and damaging adding that the issue the Cardano developer identified was addressed in the latest release of the Cardano test net.

Charles also stated that the Vessel hard fork will likely take place quote “sometime in September” and that a concrete date will be set the moment the five largest cryptocurrency exchanges are prepared for the upcoming upgrade.

For those unfamiliar the Vassal hard fork is expected to drastically improve Cardano’s scalability ie speed. Not surprisingly the soft September schedule for the Vassal hard fork has led to speculation that Cardano is planning on the hard fork occurring around the time of Ethereum’s merge with crypto media outlet decrypt noting that this is quote perhaps not coincidental.

Indeed it would be an admittedly strategic move if Cardano improved its scalability around the time Ethereum transitions to proof of stake.

This is because it would put Cardano in a perfect position to acquire users and investors if the merge fails or simply fails to meet the expectations of ETH holders.

Posted in Cardano, Crypto Articles, Ethereum

Recent Posts

  • Can you loan Bitcoin?
  • Last Week’s Crypto Market
  • Telegram bots as crypto tools
  • Weekly overview of the markets from AES4
  • A Crypto Primer: Currencies, Commodities, and Tokens

crypto

Bitcoin

$16,897.67

USD Coin

$1.00

Tether

$1.00

Ethereum

$1,271.52

Basic Attention Token

$0.23

PAX Gold

$1,788.99

XRP

$0.39

BUSD

$1.00

$1.00

Cardano

$0.31

Chainlink

$7.58

Dogecoin

$0.10

Litecoin

$75.91

0x

$0.19

Avalanche

$12.92

TerraUSD

$0.02

Decentraland

$0.40

Shiba Inu

$0.0000

Polkadot

$5.43

Monero

$143.77

Gemini Dollar

$1.00

Synthetix

$1.70

Recent Comments

No comments to show.

Archives

  • December 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • May 2022

Categories

  • Bitcoin Loan
  • Cardano
  • Crypto Articles
  • Crypto Market
  • Ethereum
  • move crypto
Powered by Headline WordPress Theme